It’s almost that time of year again – WNBA season. There was a busy offseason but now it is time to get down to business. So you want to know who is going to win the WNBA title or at least who I should bet on. Well, that is a complicated question and we have yet to have the draft. But there is some value out there. One word to be aware; odds vary greatly by the book you use so shop around and get the best price before making a futures bet in the WNBA. So without further ado:
I am going to use the odds from Ceasar’s (but odds vary greatly for teams from book to book)
No Chance in Hell
Indiana +10,000 and Atlanta +8000
These are the two worst teams in the league by a healthy margin. You can bet them but it would not be wise. Neither of these teams have an All Star or really a second team all star. They just lack talent.
You can but no chance
Dallas Wing +5,000- Dallas does have talent, in fact they are probably a dark horse to make the playoffs. The issue is coaching and Arike Ogunbowale. Arike is Dallas’s star guard and she likes to shoot ALOT. The problem is this costs Dallas games. If Arike could change her play style maybe Dallas could be interesting ,but I doubt it.
LA Sparks +3,000 They added Elizabeth Cambage so people are probably thinking, man, I should bet on the Sparks. Those people would be thinking wrong. Cambage enjoys the nightlife more than she enjoys basketball and was only playing 25 minutes a game for Vegas. Now the question was is that cause Cambage isn’t in shape or because Lambeer was a moron? Probably a little of both and the end of the day the Sparks coach is Derek Fisher. Nobody is winning anything with Fisher.
“Lets get Frisky”
NY Liberty +2500 – The Liberty could be an interesting bet though it would require Sabrina Ionescu to take a leap many have expected her to take. If Sabrina were to become a Superstar this year 2500 is too cheap. Also, I think if the Liberty get off to a fast start I could see the owners and the team making a trade to bring in a star or two to put them over the hump. Is this likely? No but its +2500.
Washington Mystics +2000 – Now we are getting frisky. The Mystics are two years removed from a championship. But Elena Della Donne has only played 3 games in the last two years. The rumor is she and her back are finally healthy. If her back holds up, she is a top 3 player in the WNBA. They also have the first pick in a strong draft. Yes they lost Emma Messeman but they brought in Elizabeth Williams. If you think EDD back can hold up this is a great bet and a great price.
Minnesota Lynx: +900 – This number makes no sense to me. Naphressa Collier is pregnant so we have no idea if and when she is going to play. Sylvia Fowles isn’t getting any younger. Their backcourt, which was a weakness, is still a weakness. They brought in Angel McCourtney who should have retired two years ago. I don’t see it.
What do you know about Russian Prisons?
Phoenix Mercury are +600 – The Mercury added Tina Charles to a team that played for the championship just last year and return every one of note. This price is way too low, EXCEPT Brittany Griner is currently in prison in Russia and has been there for the past three weeks. Without Griner Phoenix is not a contender, so the question is when or if does Griner get out???? And what kind of shape will she be in? They don’t call it gambling for nothing and this will be a gamble.
Chicago Sky +500 – Chicago is the defending champions, and this number seems too low at first glance. They return everyone of note and added Emma Messeman. Here is what worries me. This team is old. Courtney Vandersloot, Allie Quigley and Candace Parker are all on double digit years in the league. Can they stay healthy? They also got somewhat lucky during last years title run. So for me I am out on Chicago.
Seattle Storm +500 – Seattle brings everyone back but Jordin Canada on a team that stumbled down the stretch due to a Breanna Stewart injury. Breanna Stewart might be the best women’s basketball player on the planet so that is why they are an interesting bet. For me they just haven’t added enough to be considered a serious contender. Sue Bird is in her 40’s. Outside of Jewel Lloyd who else can score for Seattle?
Connecticut Sun +350 – I wonder if the Sun missed their window and last year was their year. DeWanna Bonner has shown signs of slippage in her current form. Alyssa Thomas is coming off an Achilles repair. Jonquel Jones is still in great form but I do wonder if they missed their shot. Also Curt Miller, their coach, has played their starters loads of minutes. I wonder if this team is wearing down. That being said this is a fair price.
Las Vegas Aces +350 – Selfishly I hoped the books would overreact to Vegas losing Cambage. However, they did not. Vegas should be the favorite. They improved massively at the coaching position getting rid of Bill Lambeer. Both Aja Wilson and Kelsey Plum are set up for big years. They have Jackee Young to trade for even more shooting. Vegas is the favorite and they should be.
Bets I like:
Mystics – that’s really the only one I like and will probably make. The rest of these teams are either correctly priced or priced too low that I am not interested.
Bets I don’t hate but understand:
Chicago, Liberty, Phoenix
Who I think will win the title: